Since President Dmitry Medvedev announced the dismissal of Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov, Western media, observers and commentators have mainly focused on the larger questions of what this decision means for the Putin-Medvedev tandem or the 2012 presidential elections. While analysts and observers in Russia (especially the press) began immediately rejoicing, commiserating or simply enjoying the drama, Russians on the street reacted with indifference, ambivalence, or humor.

The “beginning of the end” for Mayor Luzhkov was his criticism of President Medvedev’s popular decision to halt construction of a motorway through the Khimki Forest in the outskirts of Moscow. Medvedev clearly had the public on his side in this skirmish. According to a poll published by the Levada Center, 66% of Russians supported the opponents of the motorway. The president’s approval rating rose slightly in the week after the decision.

In early September, an aggressive media smear campaign against Mayor Luzhkov and his wife Yelena Baturina was launched. Although most political commentators took it for granted that the Kremlin had sponsored the campaign, the public was far from certain. According to a Levada Center poll published on September 24, 38% believed the TV smear campaign was launched on the initiative of Putin, Medvedev or both. 16% thought the TV channels dreamed it up themselves and the largest group, 44%, simply didn’t know. Contrary to much of the commentary from political analysts, just 10% of the public believed it was motivated by disagreements between Luzhkov and the federal government.

By the time Luzhkov was eventually fired on September 28, political commentators in Russia and the West had already been speculating for weeks about his dismissal. For the public, however, the decision was far more of a shock – Luzhkov had such a stranglehold on power it seemed difficult to imagine that he could ever be unseated. On September 24, 62% of Russians believed that Luzhkov would remain in his post as mayor of Moscow for at least a year. Four days later, he was dismissed.

Source: Levada Center Poll, September 24, 2010.

Most Russians believe that Yuri Luzhkov and his wife Yelena Baturina are indeed corrupt. 67% believed that the accusations of corruption against them in the media were true. Just 24% think the former mayor is “honest and decent.” 37% are either “angry with Luzhkov for his actions” or “satisfied that he has finally been caught red-handed.”

Luzhkov was a very popular mayor for much of his 18 years in office. However, his popularity nosedived in the later years amidst rumors of corruption and failure to deal decisively with the city’s problems. According to a poll by VTsIOM, in January 1999 (seven years into Luzhkov’s reign) 52% of respondents trusted the mayor. By September 2010, trust had dropped to 20%.
It is difficult to predict how history will remember Luzhkov since he truly divides opinion. When asked on September 28, the public split exactly three ways: 33% thought he had been a good mayor, 34% a bad mayor, and 34% didn’t know.

Muscovites are twice as positive about their former mayor than other Russians. 65% of Muscovites, compared to one-third of all Russians, agree that “Luzhkov was an example of an effective manager who cared about the residents of the city, the leading position of Moscow and high quality of life in the capital.” This reflects the success of Luzhkov’s populist policies, such as salary top-ups for public sector workers.

Source: VTSiOM poll, September 28, 2010.

The opinion polls also reveal an interesting insight into the way Russians judge their politicians and hold them accountable for corruption – low trust but high competence. A large swathe is completely indifferent to the Luzhkov affair. When asked how they reacted to the accusations against Luzhkov on TV, a near majority (44%) said they didn’t pay much attention to the issue at all.

While Luzkhov was only the third most popular blog topic on Yandex on October 3, the Russian blogosphere is still abuzz with debate about Luzhkov and his succession. Thousands of users of Vkontakte.ru, the leading Russian social networking site, have Luzhkov-themed status updates. One of the most popular is a reference to Luzhkov’s troubled relationship with Moscow’s gay community: “Who would have thought,” mused Luzhkov gloomily, “that I banned their parade so they came to power and threw me out.”

Luzhkov’s sacking provided a harvest for satirists and comedians and viral photos are spreading throughout the Russian internet. One features a photo-montage of a refugee Yelena Baturina saying to a small Luzhkov, “Let’s go Yurka, somehow we will survive on $3,000,000,000!”

Possibly related posts:

1. Luzhkov: Thus Spake the Commentariat (part 1)
2. Russia’s Bureaucracy: Preparing for Cuts

Luzhkov · Moscow · polls

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