After Yuri Luzhkov was dismissed from his post as mayor of Moscow, the question of succession was immediately raised. The 74-year-old Vladimir Resin, Luzhkov’s deputy, was installed as acting mayor. Bloggers spared no time in complaining that Resin is too rich and corrupt, particularly noting his penchant for expensive timepieces on a modest official government salary. From the outset, Resin had no chance to succeed Luzhkov.

As the dust settles on Luzhkov’s dismissal, everybody is talking about who will replace him.  Since the mayor of Moscow is appointed by the president, and not elected by Muscovites, the people’s choice emerged in internet straw polls. Kommersant, Russia’s most widely-read independent broadsheet, and Gazeta.ru, a leading news website, are running an online poll for the new mayor. They have assembled a shortlist of ten candidates, seven of whom were chosen by experts and three were nominated by the public. There were five leading public nominations, of whom two were disqualified by Kommersant’s editors – Yuri Luzhkov himself, on the grounds that the point of the online poll was to identify a new mayor, and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, on the grounds that he is serving a prison term (it is a tribute to his supporters that Khodorkovsky can still command such public support). Other popular nominees who scored highly but did not make it into the final three included Roman Abramovich, Yelena Baturina, Anatoly Chubais and Vladimir Zhirinovskiy.

Kommersant did not disclose who of the ten shortlisted candidates were popular nominations and who were chosen by experts, though it is fairly easy to guess. The shortlist breaks down roughly into three groups: Putin’s men (Sergei Sobyanin, Igor Shuvalov, Sergei Shoigu), Medvedev’s men (Alexander Belgov, Vladimir Kozhin, Alexander Khlopinin, Kontantin Chuichenko) and critics of the regime (Boris Nemtsov, Alexander Lebedev, Alexei Navalny).

Source: Kommersant and Gazeta.ru online poll, October 2, 2010.

The results show that Kommersant and Gazeta.ru readers are firmly behind the “opposition” candidates. Alexander Navalny is miles ahead of the rest with almost half (47.74%) of the votes as of midday on October 2. Boris Nemtsov and Alexander Lebedev took second and third places respectively. The highest scoring “establishment” candidate is Alexander Khlopinin with 6.74%.

The popularity of the opposition candidates, particularly Alexei Navalny, is notable but not particularly surprising given Kommersant’s urban, middle-class, liberal-leaning readership. It is extremely unlikely that that any of the top three candidates in this poll will make it onto the official shortlist for mayor. What is interesting is that, of the three, only Boris Nemtsov has an official role in an opposition party (he is a co-founder and board member of Solidarity). There is no sign of Sergei Kirienko (Leader of the Union of Right Forces), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (Leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia), Garry Kasparov (Solidarity) or Sergei Mironov (A Just Russia).  This seems to support the view that, while there is considerable latent discontent with the ruling regime, dissatisfied Russians do not see the current formal opposition parties as credible alternatives.

On October 1, Kommersant speculated that President Medvedev may choose Prime Minister  Putin’s chief of staff and Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Sobyanin as the next mayor of Moscow. On October 1, Putin hosted members of the ruling United Russia at his home near Moscow to discuss the mayorship. Sobyanin, flanked by senior United Russia officials, was the only potential candidate who was in attendance. Sobyanin, however, is not too keen on seeking the job to replace Luzkhov, but United Russia could put pressure on him to accept. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin, who serves as Presidential Envoy to the North Caucasus Federal District says he is ready to take up the job “if the president says so.”

Boris Gryzlov, the State Duma speaker, told journalists after the meeting that the new mayor would have “experience managing big projects,” and continue social benefits for Muscovites, especially pensioners.

Back at City Hall, acting Mayor Resin appointed Vladimir Shukshin as deputy mayor in charge of investment issues and cooperation with the law enforcement agencies to replace Alexander Ryabinin, Luzhkov’s deputy mayor who resigned last week as part of a bribery probe.

On September 30, a senior United Russia official announced that the party would reveal a list of candidates for Moscow mayor this week. Meanwhile, Kommersant’s virtual election will close on October 7.

Possibly related posts:

1. The Last Weeks of Yuri Luzhkov: A Timeline
2. Luzhkov: Vox Populi (part 2)
3. Luzhkov: Thus Spake the Commentariat (part 1)
4. Eastern Promises

Luzhkov · Medvedev · Moscow · Putin · Sobyanin

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