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Jan/12

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Nur Otan Wins Kazakhstan’s Parliamentary Elections. What Comes Next?

Kazakhstan’s leading political party, and the party of President Nazarbayev, Nur Otan, won the parliamentary elections on January 15 with 81% of the vote. Although international observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) largely criticized the election for its ‘undemocratic’ nature and a high voter turnout, monitors from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) recognized the victory as fair.

Nur Otan’s political monopoly was broken by the pro-business party Akzhol and the Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan (KNPK) joining the parliament for the first time. Akzhol polled 7.5% and the KNPK 7.2%. However, with Nur Otan retaining its parliamentary majority, Kazakhstan’s economic priorities and direction are likely to remain the same.

Despite a small number of demonstrations that urged a boycott of the elections, the party is still viewed by many as the best guarantor of political and economic stability, something that has set Kazakhstan apart from its neighbors.

Today Kazakhstan holds 3% of global oil reserves and is the world’s largest uranium miner. Last year the economy grew by 7.5%. Kazakhstan has attracted more than $120 billion in foreign investment and, currently, as of the end of 2011, remains a leader in a number of foreign investments among the countries of the CIS. Energy exports resulted in around $75 billion in foreign currency assets. By the end of 2011 350 new businesses were opened, and Nur Otan promised to raise overall GDP per capita to $15,000 by 2017, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Kazakhstan will remain Central Asian’s second largest economy and may expand up to 5.6% in the upcoming year. A proposed Business-2020 program suggests further industrial innovation, an employment program, a program for fresh water supply, a program for reconstructing of housing and the public utilities, and a program for development of agriculture.

Looking at the achievements of the previous year, the party is likely to continue the programs and projects it has pursued before.  Nur Otan remains popular due to Kazakhstan’s economic growth; the country was not as negatively affected by the global financial crisis as was Russia. However, according to Valentina, a pensioner from Almaty, “The gap between the rich and the poor is too big. We shouldn’t have splendor and squalor side-by-side”. Food products still account for 45% of every family’s budget.

Multiple investment projects planned by Nur Otan for the near future require productivity to triple. Unless incentives in the form of higher salaries and job creation exist, the economic development plan may fail. A good chunk of population is also still frustrated with the “corrupted” political system. In order to avoid the risk of mass riots and succeed in its programs for economic and social modernization, reforming law enforcement and fighting against corruption should also be party priorities.

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  4. Impact of Customs Union in Kazakhstan
  5. Kazakhstan IPOs: PBN Outlook for 2011

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